UAE’s Exit From OPEC Could Trigger Oil Market Volatility — CRMI

The Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria, CRMI, has urged Nigerian authorities, businesses and investors to prepare for potential shocks in the global oil market following the United Arab Emirates’ exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) effective May 1, 2026

In a policy advisory, CRMI Registrar and Chief Executive Officer, Victor Olannye said the development could weaken OPEC’s influence over oil supply coordination and expose countries like Nigeria to increased price volatility and fiscal uncertainty.

He warned that the exit may trigger broader geopolitical and economic consequences, including instability in energy markets, supply chain disruptions and the risk of other member states reconsidering their membership.

Olannye said while Nigeria could benefit from greater production flexibility and possible expansion in market share, such gains could be offset by intensified competition and reduced protection from collective output controls.

The institute called on policymakers to strengthen fiscal buffers and fast-track economic diversification to reduce dependence on oil revenues.

It also urged a shift towards renewable energy as part of long-term resilience.

CRMI advised corporate organizations to adopt stronger risk management frameworks, diversify business portfolios and deploy hedging strategies to manage exposure to oil price swings.

He urged Financial institutions and investors to reassess energy-related risks, improve portfolio diversification and enhance transparency in risk disclosures.

The institute also encouraged risk professionals to build capacity in geopolitical risk analysis, energy economics and scenario planning.

“Stakeholders must act proactively as global oil governance evolves, as the development could accelerate a transition towards more market-driven pricing and alternative energy systems.”

PR Oduyemi Odumade