Iran War Triggers New Energy Crisis Across Europe Continents

The knock-on effects of the conflict now whipping through the Middle East are awakening ghosts of crises past that shook the European Union.

Seven months into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022, the President of the European Commission stood at her podium in the European Parliament and accused Russia of manipulating the EU’s energy market.

“They prefer to flare the gas than to deliver it,” proclaimed Ursula von der Leyen, as spiralling energy prices hit consumers across the continent. “This market is not functioning anymore.”

“This is a war on our energy, a war on our economy, a war on our values and a war on our future,” she declared, insisting that Europe was already pivoting away from Russian gas and toward more dependable partners such as the US and Norway.

But fast forward four years and you find deep energy-linked frustration in the heart of Europe once again.

“We swore we’d learn. We promised things would change but here we are,” a highly frustrated European diplomat told me. He asked for anonymity so as to be able to speak openly.

The focus of his teeth grinding was Europe’s growing energy shock, triggered by the burning conflict in the Middle East and threatening to dominate a summit of European leaders in Brussels on Thursday.

“Instead of concentrating on much-needed long-term plans – about how to make Europe more competitive in this increasingly volatile world, [European] prime ministers and presidents are now in a panic over [energy] prices, worried about angry voters and scrambling for short-term solutions

“Just like the crisis after Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine. Different conflict. Same European divisions; same dilemmas over energy. We can’t keep going round in these circles. Something’s got to give.”

You’d be hard-pushed to find a policy-maker in Europe who didn’t agree with that last statement.

But can Europe – whether that be the whole continent or even just the 27 member states of the EU, with their diverse range of industries, energy requirements and perspectives on renewables – really secure its own energy?.

Meanwhile a lot has changed since 2022, when Europe decided to phase out its reliance on Russian gas, oil and coal and become more energy independent, following Moscow’s widespread assault on Ukraine.

Considering the EU’s slow-moving reputation, the bloc moved swiftly once it decided to cut ties with Russian energy suppliers. Now only 2% of its oil imports come from Russia, flowing to Moscow-friendly Hungary and Slovakia alone. The EU plans an end to all Russian gas imports – including LNG by next year.

Quite a turnaround from before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine when Russia supplied an estimated 55% of German natural gas imports for example, fuelling its energy-hungry industries, especially chemicals and car manufacturing.

As energy prices skyrocketed in 2022 in reaction to Russia’s invasion and the energy standoff between Russia and Europe, many countries, like Italy and the UK, felt forced to help consumers and businesses pay their bills. Coming so soon after the economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, already cash-strapped governments really felt the squeeze.

“Diversification” became the buzzword in Brussels corridors. The EU decided it would never again allow itself to be so dependent on a single energy supplier.

But four years later, the dependency is still there, even though there is more than one supplier. Europe now heavily relies on Norway and the US for its energy. Simply taking Russia out of the equation hasn’t solved the continent’s issue with energy security.

BBC