FG Records ₦30tr Revenue Shortfall In 2025

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun says Nigeria recorded a significant revenue shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year.

Mr Edun made the revelation during an appearance before the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning, where he presented updates on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).

He said the government had initially projected revenue of ₦40.8 trillion to fund the ₦54.9 trillion “budget of restoration,” designed to promote peace and economic recovery.

However, actual revenue is expected to reach only about ₦10.7 trillion.

The shortfall, Edun explained, was largely due to weak oil and gas revenues, particularly from Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) and Company Income Tax (CIT), as well as underperformance in other revenue subheads.

“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around ₦10.7 trillion, compared to the ₦40.8 trillion projection,” he told lawmakers.

He added that government borrowing of ₦14.1 trillion had not been enough to bridge the gap.

Despite the shortfall, Edun said key obligations, including salaries, statutory transfers, and domestic and foreign debt service, had been met through prudent treasury management.

Edun also provided an update on expenditure performance, noting that capital releases to Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) in 2024 stood at ₦5.2 trillion out of a budgeted ₦7.1 trillion, representing 73 per cent execution. Total capital expenditure, including multilateral and bilateral projects, reached ₦11.1 trillion of a projected ₦13.7 trillion, or 84 per cent.

He urged that future expenditure plans linked to oil revenues remain flexible, warning against committing to spending based on projections that had repeatedly fallen short.

“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” Edun said.
Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said the MTEF and FSP were developed through broad consultations with government agencies, the private sector, civil society, and development partners.

Bagudu acknowledged debate within the Economic Management Team over revenue assumptions, noting that while some advocated conservative projections based on past performance, others argued for ambitious targets to compel revenue agencies to improve performance.

For the 2026 budget, the government retained a target oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day but adopted a more cautious production assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day for revenue calculations.

Bagudu stressed the need to drive revenue-generating agencies to enhance performance.

Earlier, the Committee Chairman, James Faleke, emphasized the importance of critically analysing the economy at this time to avoid bloated budgets and guide decisions that will move the country forward.

Oduyemi Odumade, Edited By Grace Namiji